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This paper revisits building machine learning algorithms that involve interactions between entities, such as those between financial assets in an actively managed portfolio, or interactions between users in a social network. Our goal is to forecast the future evolution of ensembles of multivariate time series in such applications (e.g., the future return of a financial asset or the future popularity of a Twitter account). Designing ML algorithms for such systems requires addressing the challenges of high-dimensional interactions and non-linearity. Existing approaches usually adopt an ad-hoc approach to integrating high-dimensional techniques into non-linear models and re- cent studies have shown these approaches have questionable efficacy in time-evolving interacting systems. To this end, we propose a novel framework, which we dub as the additive influence model. Under our modeling assump- tion, we show that it is possible to decouple the learning of high-dimensional interactions from the learning of non-linear feature interactions. To learn the high-dimensional interac- tions, we leverage kernel-based techniques, with provable guarantees, to embed the entities in a low-dimensional latent space. To learn the non-linear feature-response interactions, we generalize prominent machine learning techniques, includ- ing designing a new statistically sound non-parametric method and an ensemble learning algorithm optimized for vector re- gressions. Extensive experiments on two common applica- tions demonstrate that our new algorithms deliver significantly stronger forecasting power compared to standard and recently proposed methods. 

Lightweight neural networks refer to deep networks with small numbers of parameters, which can be deployed in resource-limited hardware such as embedded systems. To learn such lightweight networks effectively and efficiently, in this paper we propose a novel convolutional layer, namely Channel-Split Recurrent Convolution (CSR-Conv), where we split the output channels to generate data sequences with length T as the input to the recurrent layers with shared weights. As a consequence, we can construct lightweight convolutional networks by simply replacing (some) linear convolutional layers with CSR-Conv layers. We prove that under mild conditions the model size decreases with the rate of O( 1 ). Empirically we demonstrate the state-of-the-art T2 performance using VGG-16, ResNet-50, ResNet-56, ResNet- 110, DenseNet-40, MobileNet, and EfficientNet as backbone networks on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Codes can be found on https://github.com/tuaxon/CSR Conv.